Friday
May112012

An Economist Bubble?

The market for talent is certainly heating up:

The moves suggest the battle for star economists is heating up. Economics powerhouses like Harvard and MIT have the resources and reputations to easily buy up the best talent. But up-and-coming departments “need to make a bunch of hires at the same time, so that each [hire] will be confident there will be plenty of good people to work with,” said Mr. Wolfers of the Wharton School. He and Ms. Stevenson plan to decide on their destination in coming weeks.

Established or not, economists are hot commodities. Last year, the average starting salary for new assistant economics professors was nearly $112,000 – the highest ever in inflation-adjusted terms and one of the highest across academic departments, according to the American Economic Association.

Tuesday
May082012

An 11 Year Old's Journey Into Game Theory

The son of a game theorist learns from Stanford's new online experiment.  The results are, to say the least, interesting:

But he took his lessons to more unexpected, and depending upon how you look at it, somewhat disturbing places. At school, students were asked to form teams and go out onto the streets and raise money for kids with cancer. His team had to choose a location and that is where he informed me that he used his game theory. On their street they saw a homeless man (a comparative rarity in Toronto). He realised that the homeless man had already worked out what the best location for charitable contributions was. In this case, it was at a point next to a subway entrance and a Starbucks. He convinced his team that they could set up their own stand right there. Two things could happen, he explained to me. One is that the homeless man, moved away to come back another day. The other was that the homeless man stayed in which case he believed that his team would have edge in their claim as their cause was for other people and his was just for himself. In the end, the homeless man abandoned the post.

Friday
May042012

News Lives!

At least as a profession.  Journalism majors are above the median in terms of employment!  Seems that this blog was a good career move after all.

 

Perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised though.  It's not like the demand for stories is going to disappear anytime soon.

H/T Calbuzz

Thursday
May032012

Most Affordable Place to Live in the World!?

The United States!

Atleast that's according to Demographia International's 8th Annual Survey. They measure affordability by the widely used “Median Multiple” (median house price divided by gross [before tax] annual median household income) across some 325 urban markets.  I was mildly surprised to see that the US turns up as the most affordable place to live (save a few regional markets like say, San Francisco).  

Perhaps what is most shocking though, is that the most expensive place to live is... Australia... ?  I would never have guessed, but Down Under there is not even a single regional housing market that qualifies as affordable.  Worse, all of those cities are not just unaffordable by the Median Multiple, but "severly unaffordable."  

Lots of reasons why this is true, the most obvious being that Australia has been China's second hand man for bulk metals for over a decade.

Australia could be in for a disaster if China gets the hard landing so many are calling for now.  Then again, it can never feel good to have such a big bet on a centrally planned economy.  They don't exactly have great track records...

Thursday
Apr262012

Student Loans

Dear Reader,

Student Loans are again in the news; President Obama has suggested capping the interest on one kind of Federal loan at 3% instead of allowing it to go up to 6%.  Many students can't pay back their debt and are demanding debt forgiveness.  Major news outlets are covering the story ---  this article from CNBC is an example. 

And third is the question of how to keep future graduates from accumulating a mountain of student loan debt just as large, if not larger, than the one just leveled.

It is this third issue which perhaps is most pressing — and most vexing —and which also offers the most opportunity for innovation. Levying an “education tax,” making college free and assigning students to institutions based on a lottery system? Abolishing “college” altogether for more specialized trade institutions instead, while at the same time requiring a “gap year” of liberal arts prior to entry? Offering high-school grads the choice between student loans or business loans to fund new ventures? These all seem ridiculous, but then so too is our current state of affairs.

What is interesting is that the most reasonable proposal available for solving this problem in the future is so rarely discussed.  There's a report out from Georgetown University on the value of different majors.

The median engineering income: $75,000.  The median mathematics major income: $70,000.  With graduate degrees afterwards those go up to $99,000 and $89,000.  Humanities and Liberal Arts?  $47,000; Arts, $44,000, and Psychology and Social Work, $42,000.  That is, of course, among people who are employed full-time

Want to guess who is having an easier time finding a full time job after college?  The Engineer or the Pysch major?

The basic issue here is that the loan availability is not actually helping to direct students into things that are actually profitable.  It should not be possible --- i.e., under no conditions should such a person be able to get a loan, since they'll never be able to pay it back --- for a person at a lower quality university to go on to get a psych major.  Someone who wants to and can pay for it on their own - fine.  Someone who wants to be a psych major at Harvard - fine.  But there are some major/university combinations that are the equivalent of swampland in Florida and unsuspecting 18 year olds are being allowed to mortgage their future to buy it.

That is not to say that we should get rid of student loans.  We should just make them conditional on what major the person wants to select.  Majors with a clear career path for professions that are in high demand --- great, give out those loans for sure.  Engineering, Mathematics & Computer Science, Hard Science, Economics (median $70,000 with an expected 50% boost from going on to get a graduate degree) are all great majors.  We should stop loaning people money and enabling them to make worse choices which burden them with debt and risk the government's finances. 

As The Daily Stag Hunt argued earlier: learn math.

--- Stag Staff